IS SAUDI ARABIA DISTANCING ITSELF FROM PAKISTAN...?

 Last year when the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman visited Pakistan on a 4-day diplomatic tour he was escorted by the PM of Pakistan Imran Khan who turned a chauffeur for the Prince to the place where the latter was going to reside. Looking at that moment the Twitterati army went crazy by both criticizing and a few praising the moment.

Many experts believed that this photo was proof for the deepening ties between the two countries who are also powerful members of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) and even the Saudis maintained good relations with Pakistan since the South Asian country has a minority of Shiites.

But all the claims of deep ties came to a still recently when Riyadh asked Islamabad to repay some of the amounts of loan which was given to them. The loan was part of a USD 6.2 billion package announced by Saudi Arabia in November 2018, which included a total of USD 3 billion in loans and an oil credit facility amounting to USD 3.2 billion.

This came after Pakistan began insisting that Saudi Arabia allow it to marshal the Islamic world's support on the Kashmir issue. 

Pakistan last week repaid a $1 billion Saudi loan. The $1 billion to repay the loan came from China, Pakistan's all-weather friend, in the form of another loan.

The original loan was a part of a $6.2 billion package announced by Saudi Arabia in November 2018, when Islamabad was struggling with a rapidly expanding trade deficit and declining foreign reserves. The package included $3 billion in loans and a $3.2 billion oil credit facility. Saudi Arabia at the time was something of a white knight, providing much-needed cash before the International Monetary Fund approved a $6 billion bailout in July 2019.

According to Pakistani media, the oil credit facility was suspended in May, with the Saudis later asking Pakistan to also repay the loan in full.

The countries' relations deteriorated quickly, beginning in February when Saudi Arabia turned down a request by Pakistan to convene a special meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Islamabad did not back down, demanding to use the OIC to pressure India on the Kashmir issue. It was then that Saudi Arabia decided to call in the loan.

The OIC is a group of 57 Muslim countries that is largely guided by Saudi Arabia.

India and Pakistan have been disputing claims over Kashmir since gaining their independence from Britain in 1947. Each of the neighbors controls parts of Kashmir.

Since 1963, China has controlled the Aksai region of Kashmir. Lately, China has adopted an aggressive posture toward Kashmir that favors Pakistan. This has resulted in a number of border clashes, including ones with India that erupted in May and June.

Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Pakistan's foreign minister, has continued openly demanding that Saudi Arabia convene an OIC council meeting.

Last week in a TV interview, he said, "Today, I am telling the OIC to convene the meeting of the council of foreign ministers. If they cannot do it, then I will be compelled to ask the prime minister [Imran Khan] to call a meeting of Islamic countries [Iran, Turkey, and Malaysia] that are ready to stand with us on the issue of Kashmir."

The latest developments have also cast doubt on the future of memorandums of understanding that call on Saudi Arabia to invest $20 billion in Pakistan; they were signed during Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's visit to Pakistan in February 2019.

The proposed investments include $10 billion in an oil refinery in Gwadar, a port city that because of its strategic location at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman has made it a focal point of the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, itself a big part of China's much wider Belt and Road Initiative.

Experts believe Saudi Arabia is reluctant to become entangled in the efforts of Pakistan and China to contain India.

Saudi Arabia is closely allied with the U.S., which may also be [applying behind-the-scenes pressure on] Saudi Arabia to stay away from Chinese initiatives. It is probably less risky for Saudi Arabia to withdraw its support for Pakistan than to stay in Gwadar since Pakistan is so closely allied to China and both are forming a wedge against India.

The close economic ties between the Saudis and India are driving the kingdom's change of heart toward Pakistan. Saudi Arabia has significant investments in India, which is also a major buyer of oil from the kingdom. Consequently, Riyadh has been less forthcoming to extend support to Pakistan's stance on Kashmir.

 Other experts say the Saudis are on a diplomatic high wire and are sure to try to find a balance. Saudi Arabia also needs Pakistan due to its proximity to Iran and is home to the world's largest Shiite minority. The Saudis will try to do something on the issue of Kashmir to placate Pakistan but not go so far as to provoke India.

Experts believe the Saudis are not alone in exercising caution, that Beijing is also wary. China needs Saudi oil and hence it will play a waiting game at this stage and try not to become involved in Middle Eastern politics for as long as possible.

Analysts fear the Islamabad-Riyadh spat will make Pakistan further reliant on Chinese loans. With China, Pakistan has put all its eggs in one basket at this stage, and Pakistan is going to have a tough time ahead of finding more allies, which might turn out to be beneficial for India.